February 10, 20261 min read
The tech industry is at peak volatility.
The tech industry is at peak volatility.
It's not because AI is immature (though, yes, a lot of it still is).
It’s volatile because the bottlenecks keep moving.
Every time one constraint is solved, the market re-prices around the next one:
• Compute was the bottleneck → GPU scarcity, wild valuation swings
• Models were the bottleneck → capability races, benchmark hype
• Data became the bottleneck → proprietary datasets, distribution moats
• Inference cost became the bottleneck → token pricing chaos
Typically, price will centralize around the limiting factors.
• Airlines: pricing is driven by seat scarcity on a specific flight/time
• Concerts: ticket prices reflect fixed capacity, limited dates, and interest
• Labor: wages follow scarcity and willingness to work
That’s why AI feels chaotic.
Not because nothing works, but because the limiting factor won’t sit still.
Markets don’t stabilize when technology matures.
They stabilize when the bottleneck becomes human-scale.
• People.
• Trust.
• Responsibility.
• Real things moving through time and space.
That’s the ultimate speed limit.